St Johnstone had the chance to all but secure their Premiership status for another season.
Instead, a meek defeat to Ross County has opened up the possibility of a second successive fight for their lives.
Given the stakes – and the fact their opponents hadn’t won on the road since November – it was an alarming result and error-strewn display.
With boos heard at half-time, full-time and a few points along the way, Saints were nowhere near the performance level required for a match of this significance.
They are now teetering on the edge of a crisis of their own making.
Courier Sport assesses the post-County defeat McDiarmid Park landscape.
A Nicky Clark-shaped problem
When Clark was signed in the last week of the summer transfer window, the hope was he would be the final piece of the jigsaw for Callum Davidson’s squad and bring out the best in others around him, while chipping in with a few goals himself.
Broadly speaking, that’s exactly how it has panned out.
👊 𝘼𝙣𝙤𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙜𝙤𝙖𝙡 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙉𝙞𝙘𝙠𝙮 𝘾𝙡𝙖𝙧𝙠
🔜 Next up is St Mirren on Wednesday night.
🎟 All ticket information here: https://t.co/0jYh2mNiOZ#SJFC | @spfl | @nickyclark91 pic.twitter.com/bCv1pBpjL5
— St. Johnstone FC (@StJohnstone) November 7, 2022
He’s had poor games like the rest of them – and his most recent goal was scored just three days after Saints last won a home game.
But patterns of play are far more perceptible and effective when he’s on the pitch.
Davidson has plenty of options to replace Clark, who is out for the season, but none are like for like and none are bringing out the best in Stevie May.
Since they became a partnership, May has only scored one goal without the former Dundee United man beside him – and that was the freakish slide tackle on Mark Birighitti a few minutes after Clark had been substituted.
Saints don’t have a high standard focal point anymore and it shows.
May’s potency has been dulled and the side are disjointed in the attacking third, with midfield runners and wing-backs not arriving where and when they should be.
When there was January talk of Jordan White being lured from Dingwall, the prospect didn’t seem to excite many Saints fans.
Had Davidson known he would lose his link-man just three games after the window closed, a White-type centre-forward may well have been a priority.
The goal that broke the deadlock on Saturday perfectly showed the best way to play on a pitch as poor as McDiarmid Park’s.
It’s not one you could imagine Saints scoring, though.
One goal in four games for a Clark-less side – and that was a Drey Wright long-range effort – shines a light on the scale of this issue.
Change the system and this time stick with it
You can’t discuss the situation St Johnstone find themselves in – and supporter reaction to it – without acknowledging there is significant concern in the stands about the direction of travel under their double-winning manager.
When your team has the worst home record in the league and attendances are dwindling, a head coach is open to legitimate criticism.
To the ‘had enough’ camp, persisting with three at the back and the football that has followed on from that is, and has been for some time, the sharp edge of complaint.
As long as Saints have largely been a hard to break down team, I’ve seen the logic in persisting with it, even if the attacking product has produced diminishing returns.
Davidson made a big selection gamble deploying a three at Fir Park.
It was fully vindicated by the closest thing to a complete St Johnstone performance there has been this season.
But that high-point of 2023 feels like a long time ago. It was a long time ago.
After the last home match when Saints were deservedly booed off the pitch, Livingston in mid-January, the risk of a structural reset and discarding the back three was minimal.
Frustratingly, we’re back in the same position.
In the two recent games when Saints have had 11 men on the pitch, a defender has been taken off on 40 minutes and two have been substituted on 54 minutes.
If a goal as simple in the making as County’s first is being conceded, it’s time for a reset.
A 4-4-1-1 should be the system at Livingston on Saturday and this time it should stay.
The cold light of day
Even though this is now already being talked about as a relegation battle by manager, players and fans, in reality that isn’t quite the case just yet.
It might not feel like it when you’re on a downward trajectory and haven’t won since February but the points total Saints have is an enviable one in terms of staying in the league.
Jim Goodwin, Malky Mackay and Derek McInnes would all gladly accept the Perth club’s form curve if it meant trading positions as well.
Losing momentum at this stage of the campaign is a frightening experience because the split structure lends itself to gaps being closed quicker than before the league is divided into two.
Cast your mind back to St Mirren of 2022/23.
After losing eight of nine matches this time last year they were the definition of a side in freefall and there were even calls for Stephen Robinson to be sacked just a few months into a new job.
He and they sorted themselves out with a few weeks to spare and St Mirren are now a team and club reborn, with European football and even third place in the Premiership a realistic possibility.
Every contest between the Paisley and Perth Saints this season has been closely matched (and the Perth side haven’t lost one).
It doesn’t reflect well on Davidson and his side that there are 12 points between them now.
St Johnstone have usually been St Mirren’s inspiration (and source of frustration) over the last few years.
For the moment, it’s the other way around.
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