St Johnstone have traditionally been slow starters at the best of times.
And they have endured some grim League Cup group campaigns, 2020/21 the glorious exception rather than the rule in recent years.
Even in that context, though, since the Perth club returned to the top flight under Derek McInnes, there has never been a coming together of squad and budget cuts, injuries and loss of form quite like this July’s.
Steven MacLean is about to embark on his first start to a season as a manager and there are fires to fight at every turn.
He has to get more players in the McDiarmid Park door of ready-made Premiership quality or close to it, while operating with probably the smallest transfer kitty in the Premiership.
He has got to find a way of helping key players back into form – or has to leave them out.
And he has got to quell a creeping sense of foreboding in his own fanbase which has mushroomed out of a humiliating 4-0 defeat to Stirling Albion, that injury list, losing out on transfer targets and back to back seasons that brought relegation far too close for comfort.
Talk about a crash course in top-level management.
It’s a steep learning curve for a rookie boss, that’s for sure – even one whose first brief was to save St Johnstone from relegation.
A creeping sense of foreboding is perhaps understandable.
Creeping ‘it’s our time’ defeatism isn’t.
Big heart
As the great Northern Irish philosopher, Thomas Wright observed: “There might be clubs with more money, bigger resources and a bigger support than St Johnstone but none with a bigger heart.”
Never has that quote been more relevant.
And in MacLean, Saints have a feisty, combative manager who shares Wright’s love of a challenge, refusal to accept that bigger budget automatically equates to higher league position.
There’s no such thing as inevitability in the Premiership. Certainly not in the bottom half of it.
Football logic suggests a lot of things need to happen for Saints to stay up or even, dare I say it, challenge for the one top-six place that is likely to be up for grabs.
The injury list needs to go from chronic to manageable in the near future and stay that way.
At least one of Liam Gordon and Andy Considine needs to give the team some authority and calm at the back, while Sam McClelland needs to take to the Scottish top-flight like he took to England’s fourth tier.
Pace out wide needs to be found in the transfer market and dynamism and an eye for a goal in the attacking midfield role.
It would have been a real bonus if Max Kucheriavyi or Alex Ferguson had made a big leap forward but that hasn’t happened yet.
Luke Jephcott needs to get to double figures or very close to it.
Graham Carey needs to cope with the weight of the creative burden – and start scoring and assisting from dead-ball opportunities.
Dan Phillips needs to make the turn of the year form his norm.
Dimitar Mitov needs to be one of the best goalkeepers in the league.
None of the above is wildly unrealistic.
And, let’s not forget, Saints aren’t operating in isolation.
Other clubs have issues
I suspect Kilmarnock, St Mirren and Ross County have thrown enough money at their squad-building to ensure they’ll be safe but all three will carry a burden of expectation that may weigh them down.
Can Motherwell cope without Kevin van Veen?
Can Livingston cope without Joel Nouble if and when he departs? And was their end of season slump a sign of things to come?
Will Dundee’s team and a bit of new signings gel? They’re already into double figures – a necessity – but course and distance performers are in the minority.
This is arguably the biggest rebuild at McDiarmid Park in a generation – being carried out while the club is for sale.
It does feel like the prospect of a fast start is stretching reality given who MacLean is able to call upon at the moment.
"We didn’t have anyone wide – hence the shape we played, which I don’t want to play. Ever. I don’t consider that one my formations but needs must. It was forced upon us." https://t.co/uRZVDMnPJp
— Eric Nicolson (@C_ENicolson) August 1, 2023
But there’s the best part of a month left in the transfer window and hopefully the Stirling horror show has seen the budget parameters broadened.
Make no mistake, if Saints finish 10th or higher it will rank as one of the best managerial achievements at McDiarmid of the modern era.
The circumstances have never been as challenging.
MacLean is shaping a younger, leaner squad.
Secure Premiership status for a 15th season and he will have given St Johnstone a platform to break free of a post-double downward spiral that needed long-term thinking to be properly checked.
Predictions
Finishing position – Ninth
Top scorer – Luke Jephcott
Top assister – Graham Carey
Player of the year – Dimitar Mitov
Young player of the year – Sam McClelland
Breakthrough player on loan – Ben McCrystal