Somebody needs to come up with a proper definition of “touching distance”.
Simo Valakari has spoken of it a lot over the last couple of months – in relation to his St Johnstone team being within it by this milestone stage of the season when the Premiership divides in two.
Unsurprisingly, the Finn didn’t put on record what he had in mind.
I suspect that five points behind one team and six behind a couple of others is likely two short of the mark he would have hoped for.
The fact that no team in the history of the split era, which goes back to 2000/01, has come from this far back to climb off the bottom of the table, lays bare the enormity of the Perth great escape task.
There are a lot of points to make up and not much time in which to do it.
Opta rates the probability of Saints finishing the season in 12th spot at 80.1%.
Those are the surface numbers and drilling deeper serves to further emphasise the scale of the job.
There is little to no margin for error – for team or manager.
The team can probably only afford to lose one game.
The manager has to get so many things right to make sure that happens.
Defensive injury crisis
You could already make a case that, with Zach Mitchell, Saints have already suffered one defensive injury too many.
Another drop-out from the backline would surely be fatal.
Valakari is likely to have only one recognised centre-back, Daniels Balodis, available for the duration of the run-in.
The full-back situation isn’t much better.
Barry Douglas doesn’t have the engine to be an orthodox up and down the pitch left-back these days, certainly not for five games in three weeks.
That leaves Sam Curtis as the only full-back you can envisage being an ever present.
Wingers and/or midfielders will need to fill in.
Though it would seem counter intuitive given the centre-half situation, does that mean going back to a wing-back formation and putting Curtis on the outside of a back three might actually be the best bet?
There isn’t an easy answer for Valakari, or an ideal solution.
Jason Holt alongside Victor Griffith is the most balanced St Johnstone midfield partnership we’ve seen over recent weeks and shouldn’t be broken up.
But the likes of Jonathan Svedberg and Elliot Watt are going to be called upon at some stage and need to show more than they have to this point, even though there are mitigating circumstances.
Who does Valakari select up front?
An instinctive judgment call will have to be made on whether Adama Sidibeh’s struggles against Celtic, and against the stronger opponents in general, point to a form issue or reinforce his suitability to feature in contests with the lower quality sides Saints are about to face.
Was Makenzie Kirk’s second half display in the semi-final indicative of a player who is about to go on another goal-scoring run?
Is there a case for making a Benji Kimpioka gamble and giving the attacking star of the opening months of the season his first start since January?
And how much can Valakari get out of Uche Ikpeazu off the bench without being reckless?
So many imponderables. So many rolls of the dice.
Injuries at one end of the pitch and a lack of goals at the other end will have made clarity of thought next to impossible for the Saints head coach this week.
Route map off the bottom
But even though the jeopardy is obvious and the tightrope wafer thin, there DOES still remain a plausible way out of this.
Injury misfortune may have bottomed out and Balodis and Sven Sprangler could see the season out as a capable central defence.
Fran Franczak could return to offer another full-back option and give a spark to the team and its supporters like only a local lad can.
Holt and Griffith could keep doing what they’re doing.
Graham Carey could show there are a couple of magic moments left in him.
Stephen Duke-McKenna could score the goal from outside the box he’s been threatening.
Kirk could go on that run.
Sidibeh could make a similar end of season impact to 12 months ago.
Ikpeazu could cause a bit of penalty box chaos that turns a game.
Maybe even Kimpioka could prove his critics wrong when he decides a simple ball to a team-mate isn’t the best option, beats three men, side-foots a shot into the far corner and leaves McDiarmid Park as a conquering hero.
Motherwell must-win
So much rests on beating Motherwell.
There should be an advantage in Saints maintaining match rhythm in the Scottish Cup while their opponents had a gap week.
There should be an advantage in Saints being accustomed to playing top six sides of late (they last faced a bottom six one, Dundee, on March 1).
Motherwell only have a solitary fit centre-back as well.
It’s hard to see where momentum is going to come from if this game is lost.
Win it and they are guaranteed to gain ground on one team above them, maybe two, maybe three.
Perhaps Dundee, Kilmarnock and Ross County will all hold their nerve, share points in their head to heads and do enough against Hearts and Motherwell to keep Saints at a safe distance.
But Valakari’s team HAVE to ask the question.
Get to within two or three points early in this season within a season and see if one of them implodes.
St Johnstone have overcome greater odds than a 20% chance in their recent history.
The cup double was a 10,000/1 shot.
There is an opportunity to make fools of the statisticians again if three points are won at Fir Park.
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