Before the World Cup, Scotland seemed like the most stable of most of the major nations.
New Zealand, Ireland, France and Wales had pre-announced they would change coaches no matter what happened in Japan.
Australia, toiling under Michael Cheika for some time, and Italy, who had fallen out of love with Conor O’Shea, were also widely expected to make changes.
Only England, where Eddie Jones is contracted until 2021 (but has hinted he might like to do something else after that), and Scotland, under Gregor Townsend were left unlikely to undergo any upheaval.
Well, in Scotland’s case that’s all changed. Failure to get out of the group stages in Japan has left Townsend under significant pressure.
A bad Six Nations to follow a poor World Cup could be terminal to his tenure, and even if he survives that, Townsend will lose one of his lieutenants and might be about to lose another.
Danny Wilson’s decision to accept the Glasgow Warriors job vacated by Dave Rennie is probably a good move – long-term – for both the club and Scotland.
Wilson’s short tenure as Scotland forwards coach has not been the greatest, coinciding with a slump in form in 2019, although that was also down to a fundamental tactical change instigated by Townsend.
One also got the occasional hint in Japan that Wilson wasn’t entirely onboard with this tactical plan. He also doesn’t seem like one of life’s assistant coaches, and will now have entirely his own plaything at Scotstoun.
Glasgow fans are not overwhelmed with delight at Wilson’s appointment (see below) but he should be good for them. He was an innovative, attack-minded coach at the Cardiff Blues and Wales Under-20s, and the Warriors are already set up for him to play that way.
The other effect of Rennie’s departure – he was leaving in June anyway even if there wasn’t a decent job like the Wallabies waiting for him – is who he might take with him to Australia.
Long-time assistant Jason O’Halloran may be one, as it also seemed he was heading back home after this season as well. But the persistent rumours from Australia have been that Rennie wants Matt Taylor, Townsend’s long-time defence coach with Glasgow and now Scotland, to join him.
Taylor is so associated with Townsend here that he’d be unlikely to survive if things go badly in 2020 and Gregor is ousted. It may be a good time for the likeable Aussie to start afresh, particularly after Scotland’s recent defensive breakdowns in big games.
So Townsend faces a crucial Six Nations with his main back room men potentially leaving. Hardly ideal, but how much threat is he really under?
Mark Dodson allowed Andy Robinson a World Cup failure and a Six Nations whitewash before a home defeat to Tonga proved the last straw.
Townsend has a shorter leash, even though he was Dodson’s personal appointment (Scotland already had a good coach who wanted to stay on) and the fact Gregor remains Scotland’s most successful coach of the pro era in terms of results.
But things have changed. While Dodson has piloted Scottish Rugby to a much stronger financial position, it’s still not failsafe. Full houses are needed at next year’s Autumn Tests, especially as there were no such money-spinning games because of the World Cup in 2019.
International results are crucial to how Scottish Rugby performs in terms of bank balance. The Scots have three away games in the 2020 Six Nations, two at home to England and France, and then three tests in South Africa and New Zealand in the summer.
Townsend’s got to fashion at least a 50 per cent success rate from those games. Good luck with that.
The myth of the imbalance
The response to Wilson’s appointment from Glasgow fans was not great. He’s not a “big enough name” for them.
Once again we’re getting the suggestion that Edinburgh get preferential treatment from Murrayfield and the sellout Warriors are a cash cow for the SRU.
This ignores past years, when under Gregor Townsend Glasgow got to shake the magic Murrayfield money tree far more often as Scottish Rugby backed their coming coaching star.
Even when Richard Cockerill took over at Edinburgh, he had to get through a year with a tiny budget, picking up spare unwanted props at rugby’s car boot sales.
Right now, it’s about even. Edinburgh’s new stadium is being built on the Murrayfield back pitches, yes, but there’s been cash targeted to upgrade Scotstoun’s capacity as well.
The clubs are getting a fair share of new young talent coming through. Glasgow have recently got the Fagersons, Scott Cummings, Adam Hastings and George Horne. Callum Gibbins did not come cheap, either.
Rennie was a big coup to be head coach for Glasgow, but the timing was good for him and for them.
Scott Robertson, the admired Crusaders coach who seems to be Warriors’ fans choice, has frankly better options.