The death of Osama bin Laden will not spell the end of al-Qaeda and could lead to an upsurge in terrorism, security experts have warned.
Professor Paul Wilkinson, chairman of the centre for the study of terrorism and political violence at St Andrews University, believes revenge attacks are “highly likely”.
“I think President Obama was right to caution that there was likely to be an upsurge in terrorism as a result of the killing of bin Laden,” he said.
“Certainly there shouldn’t be any hasty winding down of the specialist services that counter terrorism in the international community. I think that would be a great mistake.”
Professor Wilkinson said al-Qaeda remained a threat and that supporters were still capable of carrying out “mass-casualty” attacks.
He said, “It is true that al-Qaeda has suffered a huge setback in the Middle East because it has been effectively marginalised in the Arab awakening.
“People want democratic reform and freedom in the Middle East and, of course, democracy is the last thing that al-Qaeda want. They hate it they regard it as a kind of Western disease.”
He added, “Their real base of activity, the most important part of their activity, is in south and south-west Asia and it would be a great mistake to think that is going to stop any time soon.
“They are very deeply entrenched there, they are still recruiting large numbers of suicide bombers and they are still carrying out mass-casualty attacks.”
Professor Wilkinson said it would be “very dangerous” to assume the death of bin Laden would lead to the demise of al-Qaeda.
Against a backdrop of military action in Afghanistan, he also warned there can be “no simple military solution” to terrorism, adding, “You cannot beat terrorism on the battlefield alone.”
While the military were effective in carrying out specialist operations, the expert insisted there is a broader battle to be won and said international efforts to win “young hearts and minds” must continue.
Professor Wilkinson said, “The creation of a new generation of suicide bombers from young, alienated, angry Muslims would be a very serious blow. Al-Qaeda recovered after the huge setback of losing control over Afghanistan and could do so again.
“It adapted and used the internet to a great extent to make up for the loss of training camps…it will adapt again.”
He added, “In the short term, it is not unrealistic to expect that some extremists will try to create more attacks in order to prove they are still in business and to avenge the killing of their leader.”
Nevertheless, Professor Wilkinson believes the benefits of bin Laden’s death will be seen in the longer term.
“I think it is a blow to the al-Qaeda network in the broadest sense. He was, after all, the charismatic father figure, the one who has been the most effective propagandist and recruiter for al-Qaeda.”
Professor Wilkinson said the terror network would be unlikely to give up its ambition to attack Western countries.
“It is part of their belief system that we are all infidels. They believe such attacks are perfectly legitimate and that Allah will be behind them.”
He added, “It is important that we don’t wind down the expert co-operation and resources being developed internationally to prevent and combat terrorism.”
Photo by Flickr user rxb.