Economic activity in Scotland has returned to pre-recession levels, the latest quarterly Bank of Scotland Business Monitor has revealed.
Chief economist Donald MacRae said if the surge in economic activity over the summer continued “the Scottish economy should record a year of growth for 2013”.
There was a “substantial improvement” in turnover, according to the research, with 45% of firms surveyed reporting it had risen over the period of June to August this year while just 22% experienced a decline.
Subtracting the firms who had a fall in turnover from those who had a rise, this gives a net balance of +23%, up from -8% in the previous three months and the best results for six years, returning the total for this to the pre-recession levels of 2007.
For the production sector, the net balance for turnover for the three months to the end of August was +24%, compared to -5% in the previous quarter. The service sector also saw a similar improvement, with the net balance for turnover going from -10%.
Of the firms surveyed, 45% said their total volume of business was up in June to August, with 21% reporting a drop. Four out of 10 businesses surveyed said they saw an increase in the volume of new business and a quarter of companies experienced a rise in volume of repeat business.
More firms, however, suffered a fall in export activity than experienced a rise in overseas sales. Export activity rose for 22% of companies surveyed but decreased for 23%, giving a net balance of -1%.
This was the only negative trend.
A total of 32% of firms said they expected their volume of business to rise in the next six months, compared to 13% who expect it to fall.
Just over half (53%) of firms expect turnover to remain static in the next six months, a third expect it to rise and 14% anticipate a fall.