After 16 years of pain and torment Scotland are guaranteed to grace the international football stage again in 2016 well, at least according to sports boffinry.
Dr Nicolas Scelles of Stirling University has pored over 368 matches to produce a mathematical model which will send the Tartan Army scrabbling to the travel agent.
The research focused on Scotland’s opponents for the European Championship qualifiers and predicts the team guided by Gordon Strachan will sweep to second place in their group behind world champions Germany.
While a handful of non-believers might not rush for tickets to the France finals based on the findings, Dr Scelles, part of Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence, is adamant we are heading for a return to the top table.
“The paper estimates the potential outcomes for Scotland in the 2016 Euro Qualifiers based on a model of the outcomes of previous European men’s football matches and Scottish football fans should be optimistic based on our findings,” he said.
“We have used four models based on a number of variables. And our best predictor suggests Scotland will at worst make the play-offs, while our fourth and final approach would see Scotland beating Poland and Ireland to second place in Group D.
“Assuming a continuing improvement in Scotland’s performance, which includes a six-match unbeaten run, the Scottish fans should have every reason to be optimistic about their chances of a summer holiday in France in two years’ time.”
The research, to be published by Strathclyde University’s Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary, with support from analysts at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), proposes a score equation based on 13 variables, including quality of player to population.
And with Scotland’s recent form marking a rise to 28th in the latest Fifa world rankings, there is reason for long-suffering fans to let that familiar grain of hope start sneaking back in.
Stuart MacDougall, senior manager in PwC’s sports team, said: “Success for Scotland on an international stage could be the catalyst for returning some much-needed feel good factor to the game.
“It could even give Scottish football a welcome financial boost, following the recent European disappointments.”
SFA spokesman Darryl Broadfoot said: “I’m sure the fine research undertaken by Dr Nicolas Scelles will not only be well-received by the whole country but ensure he will have a supporters’ club named in his honour should we qualify for the Uefa Euro 2016 finals in France.”
Scotland take on Germany in their opening qualifier on Sunday night in Dortmund.