That was a bumpy ride. Twists, turns, unexpected incidents, announcements, and of course one fairly major vote all made 2014 just about as dramatic a year as one could imagine.
And yet I can’t help but feel we’re in for another rollercoaster ride almost as soon as 2015 gets into full flow for those in political circles.
Having had a Christmas and New Year period relaxing, enjoying some sleep by gum it was needed and being able to catch up with loved ones, general election madness will begin to build almost immediately.
So what have we learned from the past 12 months and what will that mean for the 52 weeks ahead?
First of all, we learned that Scotland does not want independence. Although a couple of polls have produced Yes results since September 18 it’s worth remembering they do not matter. I repeat: they do not matter.
Samples of around 1,000 people, however well weighted, do not overrule the 3,619,915 who cast their vote when it mattered. For the record, they divided 2,001,926 in favour of No and 1,617,989 in favour of Yes.
That’s pretty close, roughly a 55/45 split, but it is decisive. Unless circumstances change dramatically there should be no call for another referendum. The people have had their say, no matter what some politicians, plenty of failed politicians and certain online echo chambers may claim.
Funnily enough, we learned something very important from this process which resonates particularly with next year’s general election in mind.
Politicians are terrified of losing their jobs and will jump through whatever ring of fire they feel they need to so we don’t sack them. You just need to look at the grovelling, last-minute offers and panicked visits from David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg when things looked neck and neck in the run-up to the referendum.
Expect more of the same as we approach May. The Tories have already started a tax cut giveaway, despite also telling us we’re locked into “austerity Britain”. I’m sure those sums will add up after the vote. Ahem.
Labour, meanwhile, doesn’t really seem to know what to say or do. A regular refrain in a book I’ve just finished reading was: “When in trouble or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.”
It’s apparently an “ancient adage” from the US military but it seems to apply to those at the top of the UK’s official opposition at the moment. That’s because they’re scared, and so they should be.
Having seen consistent poll leads evaporate to the Conservatives, they are also staring the possibility of losing lots of seats to the SNP square in the face.
Why is this? Didn’t the SNP lose the referendum? Well, yes but there are multi-faceted explanations for why they have not fallen apart as could easily have happened.
One: their well-drilled organisation. Two: their well-drilled loyalty. Probably most importantly, three: Alex Salmond’s tactical masterstroke of resigning on September 19.
Senior figures in the SNP insist he didn’t have to go. He probably didn’t but in appearing to fall honourably on his sword he absorbed and dispelled all potential criticism in one fell swoop. It also moved attention from “what went wrong” to “what happens now”.
Instead of potentially getting the blame for losing, he has become a hero and galvanised support for his party. This has happened as membership has rocketed and a real drive for more devolved powers has emerged.
Let me say this now, for the record, I do not know a single person who voted No because they wanted further devolution. I fundamentally do not believe any promises were the reason for the referendum result.
However, there is now a massive issue for the main UK parties. They have so far hit their timetable for delivering more devolution but the Smith Commission itself, despite containing lots of powers, has received a mixed reception. It must now be delivered in full. Any other outcome would shatter any remaining trust in the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems.
What can we expect from the next year, then? Well, I predict Labour will bounce back to some degree under Jim Murphy and Kezia Dugdale’s leadership. Enough to stop them getting an election battering? Who knows, but it won’t be the same rudderless manner they’ve taken their lumps recently.
The SNP to at least double their seats at Westminster but not to approach the fantasy numbers being bandied about just now. First past the post and large majorities will count against them.
The Tories to sneak the largest number of seats at Westminster again. No commitment to whether or not they will secure a majority.
If they do that then it’s EU referendum time. Remember what I said about a dramatic change in circumstances?