The 1872 Cup matches last week marked the halfway point in the rugby season, and as good a place as any to take stock as we enter a packed and frenetic 2015.
Scotland will probably play 14 cap internationals this year five Six Nations matches, four World Cup warm-ups, plus probably five more in the tournament itself.
The more optimistic among us notably SRU chief executive Mark Dodson – expect a minimum of 16, which would take us the way to the Rugby World Cup Final at Twickenham on October 31.
As regular readers know, I don’t go in for the overbearing optimism that starts to permeate in Scotland at this time of year for our Six Nations prospects and beyond. But here’s where I think we are
SCOTLAND
You’d have to be an unbearable doomsayer which despite appearances, I’m not not to have been at least partly impressed with Scotland under Vern Cotter in November. There were three decent performances, and for an hour against a good team Argentina they were exceptional.
Cotter is an impressive operator, and genuinely seems to have engaged with his new position. It was illuminating to hear his enthusiasm speaking about Scotland when questioned by a visiting New Zealand journalist the week the All Blacks were in town.
He’s also shown a pleasing decisiveness. The decision to drop Kelly Brown barely raises a ripple now, and he has no apparent fear of fielding young players in responsible roles, notably Jonny Gray – the player of the first half of the season by a country mile – Adam Ashe, Finn Russell and Mark Bennett, who all looked ten feet tall as a result.
But are we really ready to go nose-to-nose with Wales and Ireland? Probably not quite yet. And the fact remains that none of the Celtic Nations really have the resources to deal with a full-scale injury crisis that can develop quickly in such a demanding year, certainly not in the way England and France can.
We can at least say that the Scots will be consistently competitive in the Six Nations this year, which they certainly were not in three of the five games last year.
Beyond that, the entire season is centred on the World Cup matches against South Africa and Samoa in Newcastle, specifically the Samoan game.
The Islanders have significant off-field issues which might be problematic, but they also have real quality players and a formidable team spirit when they’re together for a prolonged spell, like in preparing for World Cups.
Anything less than a quarter-final at Twickenham and 2015 is a failure.
GLASGOW
There’s been signs for a while that the Warriors’ rise might be stalling, and we got plenty evidence in their unexpected loss last week at Murrayfield in the 1872 Cup. Even with 10 changes, Glasgow should have been more than good enough to take out Edinburgh twice.
I’m indebted to the research of one Warriors fan, Joe Ferrie, who points out that the club have a markedly reduced win rate when Rob Harley doesn’t play, which admittedly doesn’t happen that often. Harley is out for several weeks with knee problems sustained in the 1872 Cup first leg, and his influence doing the down and dirty stuff will be sorely missed by the Warriors and indeed by Scotland.
Glasgow’s season now is in the balance in the weeks before the Six Nations starts, and for a key match in the midst of it. They need a morale-boosting win over Scarlets this week, and then have the two games in Europe to meet their target of a quarter-final place. Montpellier may be coasting now they can’t qualify, but Bath at the Recreation Ground looks a monumental task.
On February 21, slap bang in the middle of the Six Nations, the Ospreys come to Scotstoun in the PRO12 which may still be a first versus second clash. Win that, the Warriors have their own play-off fate in their hands.
The second half against Munster two weeks ago is the performance level the Warriors should be aiming for rather than those toiling to beat Edinburgh, Dragons and Treviso at home in the last month. But Gregor Townsend needs to find an additional attacking spark from somewhere.
EDINBURGH
The 1872 Cup win took the heat off Edinburgh head coach Alan Solomons, and he was able with some justification to claim it as a significant step in his 15 months in charge.
But he knows as well as anyone that consistency has been the problem for Edinburgh right throughout his 15 months in charge. They can beat Munster one week, capitulate to the likes of Zebre the next. Even after the euphoria of the cup win, Connacht on Friday looks an immediate pothole for them.
Solomons, personified as preferring modest Southern Hemisphere players at the expense of locals, has been blooding more native Scottish talent.
Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, Ben Toolis, Rory Sutherland and Hamish Watson have all been given and taken their selection chances. The imbalance between the two pro clubs in terms of youth development has at least been partly addressed.
But Edinburgh need to gamble a little on playing a bit more open. Tim Visser’s two tries against Glasgow in the 1872 second leg doubled his try-count for the season, a horrendous under-use of a player who has been the PRO12’s most prolific scorer.
He’s not slowed down, he’s just not been getting nearly enough ball.
ELSEWHERE
Rugby badly needs to sort out a number of issues, probably after the World Cup now as the tournament is too close.
The breakdown continues to be a mess with no coherent and consistent policy from league to league, country to country, sometimes game to game. The rules are there, they just have to be properly applied.
The TMO has almost become a curse, and we’ve discovered there is no such thing as “incontrovertible TV evidence”. Go back to adjudicating on groundings, final passes and serious foul play, only.
The scrum is already a curse. I was at Howe of Fife’s game against GHA in the BT Cup last week, and the underpowered Howe pack had a quick heel drill mastered so well that scrums took mere seconds to complete before they were on the attack again.
Then I saw a replay of the 1990 Grand Slam match and Kenny Milne’s quick heel at THAT scrum before the ball travelled Jeffrey-Armstrong-Hastings-Stanger and we went nuts for a generation.
In the pros the scrum has become a macho shoving match to win cheap penalties. Why can’t the combined minds of genius coaches and gloriously talented athletes see the benefit and execute a simple quick heel drill anymore?