Win or lose this Saturday, the judgments on St Johnstone’s season and that of the club’s manager have already been made.
Consolidation in the top six, two away wins in Europe, two cup semi-finals and one final.
You would struggle to find anyone who would suggest we should revise our assessment of Saints and Tommy Wright even if they pick up runners’ up medals at Celtic Park. Their year’s goals have been realised, and then some.
The same could yet be said of Dundee United and Jackie McNamara, but the difference is, in their case everything is riding on the Scottish Cup final.
Fourth in the league? That’s par for United with the squad they have, but no higher.
And that feeling that they’ve done no better or worse in the Premiership than was expected of them was reflected by McNamara not making it on to the shortlist for manager of the year.
The cup final presents an opportunity for a spectacular 18th hole eagle which will make those nominations look premature, but defeat would be a three-putt double-bogey that leaves McNamara signing for a scorecard that wouldn’t be winning his monthly medal.
As well as determining whether McNamara’s first full season in charge at Tannadice has been a success, the fifth St Johnstone match of the season will also be hugely informative on his development as a manager.
The problems Saints have caused United this season are well documented. Three matches in a row have been lost, two of them comprehensively.
Unless the Perth men suffer an unexpected bout of stage fright at Parkhead, the challenge they will set their opponents will be similar to that which McNamara’s men have failed to overcome so far.
How United go about trying to change the narrative is where the intrigue lies in this match.
One way is actually to not change at all – for McNamara to have such absolute unswerving faith in the style he wants his team to play, and in the individuals he wants to carry it out.
But it is a fine line between sticking to your beliefs and adapting to the circumstances. When does a principled and resolute manager become a stubborn and inflexible one? When he loses the biggest game of the season, that’s when.
Just look at the change in perception of Brendan Rodgers after Chelsea thwarted his Liverpool team.
If John Souttar and Ryan Gauld start at Celtic Park, they play like we know they can, United get back to their untouchable form of the autumn, and Saints are swept aside, McNamara will be lauded for his bravery and being true to his values.
But if John Souttar and Ryan Gauld start, they play like we’ve seen them against Saints in the recent past, the team’s autumn form is nowhere to be seen, and it is United who are swept aside, McNamara will be criticised for a lack of pragmatism and adaptability.
It’s not because United are the bigger team, with the bigger crowd that there is more pressure on him than Wright. Nor because St Johnstone have already claimed their piece of history by getting to the final and United are a cup-winning club of just four years ago.
The pressure is greater on McNamara than Wright because his team selection and tactics will carry more significance. As the boss of the side which has struggled in this particular fixture, he’s the one who has to affect a change, whether that might be doing the same things better or by altering his approach.
When Gauld and Souttar were picked for last year’s Scottish Cup semi-final against Celtic, McNamara wasn’t going to be judged, whatever the result and their performance. It was a low risk gamble. The stakes are higher now.