“If there was hope,” wrote George Orwell in his masterpiece, 1984, “it must lie in the proles.”
Alas, anyone involved in Scottish politics cannot help but see even literary classics through the prism of the independence referendum.
That means, recently re-reading a bit of big Dode’s work, I started considering the tactics being used by both campaign groups in the run up to September’s vote.
In particular, Yes Scotland sees a potential political reawakening of the masses as their biggest opportunity to get over the line in September.
These people, argue pro-independence campaigners, have not voted in years. They do not appear in any polls. They have no love for the status quo.
First of all, there is no guarantee of the latter statement making much difference. That’s not to say they think the UK Government is wonderful, they just might not be motivated enough to go out and vote.
Speaking to a senior Labour figure in Westminster this week, I asked what they thought about reports that Yes is out in front on the doorsteps in some cities’ schemes and estates.
Interestingly, they did not seem moved. “Lots of these people will not vote,” was the reply.
“They’re the sort of people who come up to you in the pub a week after the result is in and say: ‘When was that vote again?’ If they are relying on them, they are struggling.”
Unsurprisingly, that’s not the way it is being seen by those chapping the doors arguing for independence.
It is the people who have never voted in a party political election who will drive change and pull them over the line, they argue.
One thing is certainly true, there are a lot of people up for grabs. If we are to believe the predictions of a 75-80% turnout (and there is no reason not to) we are in for a massive rise in engagement.
It’s pretty depressing looking at the drop of in election votes over the last generation. We are all rightly delighted at the prospect of a 75% turnout for a one-off, massive referendum.
In 1997, the UK general election turnout was 71.4%. Five years earlier it was 77.7%. It actually fluctuated around the three quarter mark all the way from 1945, with a couple of peaks above 80% in 1950 and ‘51, until 2001.
Since the new millennium, the highest UK turnout has been was 2010’s 65.1%. Not quite two-thirds.
What about engagement in Holyrood? Is there a real case that a democracy closer to the people, in a shiny new parliament that should have made folk interested, would boost turnout?
Alas not. We have never made it over the 60% mark (1999’s inaugural election hit the heady heights of 58.16%) and have sloshed around the half way mark in each of the past three votes.
That means, in theory, we have around a quarter of the electorate up for grabs in nine weeks’ time.
They will certainly be important, they will potentially swing the result and both sides have laid claim to them.
Yes say they have won them on the doorsteps, Prime Minister David Cameron presumably wraps them up in his “silent majority”.
The truth is many have probably not made up their mind and one thing is certain: if one campaign can win the returning/first time voters, it will greatly boost their chance of winning the referendum.