Glasgow have been knocking at the door in the PRO12 for four or five seasons now, and a lot of people felt Saturday night’s Grand Final was their time.
Leinster’s improvement from modest performances against Edinburgh and Ulster in the last three weeks in winning 34-12 was considerable, but they were helped by the Warriors inexplicably changing a successful gameplan at the RDS.
As the Americans romantically put it, you should always “dance with the girl you brought”. The Warriors during their big run had two gameplans, a conservative, territorial-based game for the tougher teams like Ulster, Munster and Llanelli, and an open, off-loading style for matches against the likes of Zebre, Treviso and Edinburgh.
For inexplicable reasons they elected to play the off-loading and open gameplan against the best team in the league in the Grand Final. It worked for the opening twenty minutes because Leinster were clearly surprised, but the three time European champions are better at thinking on the hoof than most.
It was close for long enough, but it was notable and perhaps suspicious, given some of the high tackling going on – that Glasgow lost four of their most important players for the final quarter.
Captain Al Kellock left after 50 minutes as per schedule, but injuries had cost the Warriors their on-field general Chris Cusiter, their chief ball-winner Chris Fusaro and their best defender, Alex Dunbar.
No wonder they looked rudderless in the last ten minutes.
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John Beattie on the BBC heaped significant blame for Glasgow failing to score at a crucial moment in the final on Niko Matawalu, and I have to say I think it was entirely unfair.
The Fijian has, as JRB pointed out, made more errors this season than anyone in the PRO12. You can counter that by pointing out he’s also scored more tries than any other Warrior this season, and the stat is meaningless in this context anyway unless you detail how many of those errors resulted in tries for the opposition.
As for him being “greedy” at the goal-line ruck that eventually resulted in a knock-on as he went for the try, I don’t have a problem with that.
Leinster’s last-line defence is smothering, and Matawalu’s quick wit and elusive skill near the line made it a reasonable gamble to go on his own, something he’s done successfully in several games in his two years at Scotstoun.
I didn’t have a problem with his speculative chip over the top at the end which gifted Leinster their final try the game was gone by then anyway. I did have a problem with him tapping quick penalties when the game was still close instead of allowing kicks for position, but by then Glasgow’s lineout was creaking.
Credit to Leinster, though, they shut down the Warriors’ two Fijian wildcards effectively. They’ve been better than anyone at stopping Matawalu in the past, and they quickly adjusted to Leone Nakamura’s unorthodox style in a way Munster failed to do in the semi-final.
After Nakarawa threatened to run riot when coming on for Fusaro in the first half, he was completely shut down in the second.
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Whither Glasgow now? I still believe that the decision not to re-sign Cusiter was a huge mistake, and none of the alternatives left offer his skills and leadership.
Ruaridh Jackson and Moray Low’s departures are more easily handled with what Gregor Townsend already has. It’s been a good year for Toonie in terms of bringing players on, notably Finn Russell, Gordon Reid and Jonny Gray, who could be playing regularly for Scotland quite soon.
Back row, midfield, and back three are areas of strength, but in the latter area the situation with Stuart Hogg needs sorting.
The player is clearly unhappy or wouldn’t have been cuddling up to Ulster, although he won’t be going there for next season after they filled their quota of non-Irish players last week.
Whoever’s fault this is doesn’t particularly matter, he’s an important player for the club both on the field and promotionally off it. It suits no-one if he’s discontented through the final year of his contract.
In the forwards, the Warriors could do with another option at hooker. Kevin Bryce looks to be the one to challenge for that, and could be an emerging force next season.
But no side in the PRO12 is staying still, even Connacht are signing ex-All Blacks. Munster, Ulster and to a lesser extent Leinster have often treated the PRO12 like weekend filler between international and European Cup competition, but there’s growing signs they won’t from now on. Even the pitifiully underachieving Welsh have got more money to spend.
This may have been Glasgow’s best chance.