That Lions/Australia pendulum has done a lot of swinging this week.
On Saturday night a series win for the tourists seemed highly probable given they hadn’t played their best in Brisbane but still won, the Aussie backline was decimated by injuries, the Lions appeared to have emerged unscathed, and a citing for the Wallabies captain James Horwill was in the offing.
Lions fans didn’t have long to count their chooks however, as 24 hours later Horwill was, in Brian O’Driscoll’s words a “lucky lucky boy”, and was cleared of stamping. And it turned out to be Warren Gatland who lost his enforcer/captain/lock, when a scan showed up Paul O’Connell had fractured a bone in his arm.
The floating voters who were edging towards 2-0 were starting to favour 1-1.
Now we’ve had the team selections, and for my money, that pendulum is back to red.
Gatland knows his side scraped through unconvincingly in Brisbane and has gambled.
Alex Cuthbert didn’t do a lot wrong and scored an excellent try. Nobody would have pointed the finger had he been retained and the fit again Tommy Bowe was listed among the replacements. The higher risk was starting Bowe, but so was the reward. He’s a better all-round player.
Mike Phillips and Tom Croft were thought to be untouchables. But neither had an impact in the first Test, and Gatland wasn’t willing to show blind faith that they would in the second. Again though, Phillips and Croft in the starting XV wouldn’t have caused a stir.
Ben Youngs has played better than Phillips on tour, and Dan Lydiate will offer the physical presence in the forwards that Croft didn’t, particularly in the absence of O’Connell.
The lack of a lock on the bench isn’t ideal, but you can’t cover every eventuality, and Croft could go into the second row if Alan Wyn Jones or Geoff Parling gets injured.
The only pick I would argue with is Mako Vunipola instead of Ryan Grant at loosehead prop.
Where Gatland has been bold, opposite number Robbie Deans has been stubborn.
James O’Connor stays at stand-off. It’s the decision which will define this tour, and whether Deans keeps his job after it.
Nobody expected a recall for Quade Cooper but switching Kurtley Beale into the playmaker role and shifting O’Connor out to the wing was the two-plus-two-equals-four equation.
I can understand that Deans didn’t want O’Connor rather than Israel Folau up against George North on the wing (which would have happened had Beale gone to stand-off and Folau to full-back). But I’d rather that than stick with a main in the pivotal position on the pitch that doesn’t have the full skillset for it. It’s like asking Danny Cipriani to play at 10 for the Lions.
And, on top of that, Australia also face the possible loss of Horwill for the third Test after the IRB appealed the decision to clear him earlier in the week. It’s a short term distraction they could do without, if nothing else.
Now that the two coaches have showed their hands for the weekend, if Horwill is indeed missing for the third Test, I feel it will be for a game where Australia will be trying to avoid a whitewash.
Mind you, in a week where it’s been best to expect the unexpected, there’s still plenty of time for that pendulum to get moving again.