There can only be doubts over, at most, five of the positions in the starting XV for the British and Irish Lions’ first Test against Australia on Saturday. And that’s a good thing.
The reaction in some quarters to the midweek defeat to the Brumbies has been vastly over the top.
There’s no need to panic though, as in the grand scheme of things the match, the performance, and the result meant absolutely nothing.
Comparing the team that started in Canberra with that which will take the field in Brisbane is like saying a Chelsea team which loses in the Carling Cup on a Tuesday night will have a negative effect on their performance against Manchester United in the Premier League on a Sunday. It’s apples and oranges. An irrelevance.
Here’s the 10 nailed on players, none of whose inclusions I would waste a word arguing against:
Tighthead prop Adam Jones. Hasn’t been at his very best but Dan Cole hasn’t done enough to test Warren Gatland’s faith in the curly one.
Second rows Paul O’Connell and Alan Wyn Jones. There will be disagreement whether Geoff Parling or Richie Gray should be on the bench as cover but the Welsh-Irish combination in the middle of the pack is a no-brainer.
Openside flanker Sam Warburton. Will peak at the right time after steadily progressing in his two appearances on tour so far, and the Lions’ failure to convince at the breakdown would make the captain’s exclusion crazy. I’ve got a feeling he’ll put in a man of the match performance.
Scrum-half Mike Phillips. We haven’t seen the best of him yet but, with Jamie Roberts injured, Phillips’ direct running round the fringes will be even more important in the Lions’ gameplan than it would have been had his countryman been outside him.
Fly-half Jonny Sexton. Probably the most important player in the Lions’ team. If he has an eight out of 10 game, the tourists will win, especially if, as expected, he’s up against James O’Connor.
Centres Jonathan Davies and Brian O’Driscoll. Both natural outside centres, expect them to switch roles throughout the game with BoD drifting wider in defence and narrower in attack. O’Driscoll has enough experience to make this partnership live up to its potential. The other bonus is it brings an element of surprise for their opponents a rarity on a Lions Tour.
Left wing George North. Fit again and the Lions’ battering ram-in-chief. Will be used as first receiver as much as the centres.
Full-backLeigh Halfpenny. This tour’s Neil Jenkins. Hardly ever misses a penalty and conversion. The fact that he runs fantastic lines, is safe under a high ball, and has a an excellent rugby brain is quite handy as well.
That leaves the five spots where it will be less of an i-dotting and t-crossing selection meeting.
Loosehead propMako Vunipola or Alex Corbisiero. It would be a slap in the face for the man who has shown the most in this position over the last few weeks, Vunipola, but I’d go for Corbisiero. It’s likely to be wet and cold in Brisbane and a solid scrum is more important in the first-half (remember the first Test in South Africa) than ball carrying. Vunipola on for Corbisiero on the hour mark is a better swap than the other way round.
HookerRichard Hibbard or Tom Youngs. Flip of a coin, and I’d be happy with either. After sacrificing the loose play of Vunipola though, I’d be tempted to go for Youngs, who offers a bit more in this regard.
Number eight Toby Faletau or Jamie Heaslip. If neither had played on Tuesday night, I’d have picked Faletau. Heaslip is a higher tariff choice a potential game-winner but also a potential liability. There’s no way Faletau can be expected to play back-to-back at this stage of the tour though, and as Heaslip was rested against the Brumbies, he gets the nod.
Blindside flanker Tom Croft or Dan Lydiate. Gatland will probably pick Croft, but I’d choose Lydiate. That much talked about breakdown (is there a Test when it isn’t these days?) is a worry and in a ferocious first match I’d be happier with Lydiate’s world class tackling over Croft’s line-out and running skills. Like Vunipola, Croft is made for second-half impact.
Right wing Alex Cuthbert or Simon Zebo. Cuthbert is a big game player but he’s been poor in defence Down Under. If there’s a gamble to be made, this is where I’d make it. Zebo for me.
None of the Scots have earned the right to start, and there’s the possibility that we won’t even be represented on the bench. Gray will probably just shade the lock substitute’s role over Parling and, if he does, will undoubtedly get game-time.