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Governor’s interest rates move will provide crucial certainty

Governor’s interest rates move will provide crucial certainty

The evidence continues to stack up. Various reports, studies and official government data published in recent months point to a broad-based recovery in the UK economy.

Month upon month and quarter upon quarter the signs of a sustained economic fightback continue to mount as confidence and expectation within the business community grows.

Hoping to capitalise on that momentum this week was new Bank of England governor Mark Carney.

In his first major public pronouncement since taking the top job, the Canadian set out his plan for boosting growth.

Mr Carney’s new system of providing forward guidance to the City on interest rate policy is designed to give more certainty to a jittery and all-too-easily-spooked marketplace still treading on post-recession eggshells.

Under the new regime the bank’s powerful Monetary Policy Committee will not consider raising interest rates from their record low base until the UK’s unemployment rate falls below the 7% threshold.

Mr Carney predicted that it would take around three years and the creation of 750,000 new jobs before the conditions were met to allow the MPC to return to the interest rate issue.

The move is the first major indication of the likely direction of travel for the UK economy under Mr Carney’s guiding hand.

It apes the stance he adopted while governor of the central bank of Canada in 2009 a decision that helped to stabilise the country’s economy while others around the globe faltered.

While offering various get-out clauses relating to overall financial stability and the possibility of runaway inflation, Mr Carney said it was his expectation that UK GDP could be boosted by half a percentage point in the medium term by the simple action of providing advanced guidance on interest rates.

That is a considerable chunk given the recession-related backtracking of the past five years.

Businesses work to pre-ordained plans and by giving companies certainty the Holy Grail for many following the boom and bust years Mr Carney is setting the ground for growth.

Firms who have been hoarding cash to stave off the possibility of economic distress during the bad times may finally be persuaded to open the purse strings while others will be tempted to loan cash to fund new business investments.

That can only be a good thing as Britain gets back to work following the most severe economic depression for generations.

The forward guidance plan has got Mr Carney’s tenure at the Old Lady off to a positive start, but it is far from being an economic panacea.

Next on his to-do list is the job of persuading the banks to properly underpin the economic recovery by extending lending to the real economy.

Businesses of all shapes and sizes need access to reliable and affordable finance streams.

The UK’s current modest economic growth must be carefully nurtured and properly supported.

Mr Carney is the puppet master with the strings of economic change at his fingertips but in order to effect that change he must pull the right strings in the right order at the right time.

Even with a gathering economic tailwind that is a job which is easier said than done.Flagging fortunes for pay day lendersThe rise of the pay day loan companies and the resurgence in popularity of pawnbrokers was a none-too-subtle sign that all was not well in the British economy.

It was one of the very few sectors where the economic downturn was actually good for business as hard-pressed people turned to one of the oldest forms of lending to help make ends meet.

It was therefore with real interest that I read this week of the problems facing one of the UK’s leading pawnbroking businesses.

As the recovery has gained pace, the appetite for pawnbroking services has started to wane.

It appears the beneficiaries of the down cycle could start to struggle themselves as the up cycle properly begins to bed in.