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SNP continues to enjoy ‘commanding lead’ over Labour in polls

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The SNP continues to have a “commanding lead” over Labour, according to the latest opinion poll.

The study, by TNS BMRB, found that 60% of those who gave a preference said they would be supporting the SNP in the constituency ballot in next year’s Holyrood election.

Meanwhile, 51% said they would back Nicola Sturgeon’s party in the regional vote, according to the poll.

That compares to Labour’s support levels of 20% in the constituency vote and 21% in the regional ballot.

However, Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said backing for Labour may change after the party elects new Scottish and UK leaders to replace Jim Murphy and Ed Miliband respectively.

The Conservatives came in third in terms of support, polling 14% in terms of the constituency vote and 13% in the regional ballot. Meanwhile, 5% of people backed the Liberal Democrats in both the constituency and regional votes, while the Scottish Greens polled 7% in the regional section of ballot.

Two thirds (66%) of those surveyed said they were certain to vote in next May’s Holyrood elections, compared to the 50% who voted in the last Scottish election in 2011.

Pollsters questioned 1,056 people across Scotland who were all aged 16 or over.

Almost all of those (97%) who backed the SNP in this year’s general election said they would be voting for Ms Sturgeon’s party in the constituency ballot in the Holyrood election, while 85% of those who voted Labour in May plan on doing so next year.

Mr Costley added: “As would have been expected, political opinion in Scotland appears to be quite stable, with the SNP in a commanding lead over the other parties. Our survey also suggests that the SNP vote may be holding together more strongly than the Labour vote.

“However, given that Labour is still in the process of choosing new UK and Scottish leaders, the picture may change later in the year when the leaders of all the parties set out their stalls at their autumn conferences.”

He added: “It is worth noting that the SNP lead among younger voters continues to be especially strong – 73% of those aged 16-34 who express a party preference say they intend to vote SNP, against 12% backing Labour.

“After our last poll, Kezia Dugdale, one of the contenders for the leadership of Scottish Labour, warned her party that its relative weakness among younger voters meant that ‘we may not be at the bottom of where the Labour Party could get to in Scottish public life. There might be another storm coming’.”

SNP business convener Derek Mackay MSP said: “This is another very encouraging poll for the SNP, showing extraordinary levels of support for the party after more than eight years in government – and is a vote of confidence in the strong start that the new SNP MPs have made in standing up for Scotland’s interests at Westminster.

“But we take absolutely nothing for granted, and will work hard every day between now and next year’s Holyrood election to retain the trust of people right across Scotland as we look to build on our record of delivery and success over the last eight years.”

He added: “Since coming to office in 2007, we have frozen council tax, protected free higher education, scrapped prescription charges, boosted apprenticeship numbers by almost 60%, protected free personal care, maintained the concessionary travel scheme, increased Scotland’s health budget to record levels, and protected those hardest hit by unfair Tory welfare cuts.

“All this has been in the face of massive Westminster cuts to our budget.

“There is still more to do and, if re-elected in 2016, the SNP will build on our strong record and deliver further improvements.

“As First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has already outlined, by 2020 we will deliver 30 hours of free childcare – almost doubling the current provision of 16 hours – and continue to protect our NHS.

“We will also continue to use the powers we have to strengthen and grow the Scottish economy – and push the case at Westminster for the further powers we need to create more and better jobs and to tackle poverty and inequality.”