The Liberal Democrats held off a late UKIP surge to win the Eastleigh by-election this morning, but David Cameron was dealt a serious blow as the Conservatives were pushed into third place.
Nick Clegg said his party was “on track” for the 2015 general election after local councillor Mike Thornton held on to the seat vacated by disgraced ex-cabinet minister Chris Huhne.
He won with 13,342 votes, a majority of 1,771 over the UK Independence Party’s Diane James, who said beating the Tories was a “humongous” shock that represented a “seismic shift” in UK politics.
Tory Maria Hutchings polled 10,559 votes – more than 1,000 behind UKIP, which snatched huge chunks of the coalition parties’ 2010 general election vote share, taking more than 27% of the total.
In his victory speech Mr Thornton said it was “a great night for the Liberal Democrats nationally, a strong signal of support for Nick Clegg, an affirmation of our role working in the national interest within the coalition and a huge boost to our party’s mission in government to build a stronger economy in a fairer society.”
Lib Dem president Tim Farron said it represented a “turning point in this parliament” that would “strengthen our hand very much within coalition in the run up to the budget”.
And he suggested it left the Lib Dems in “a very strong position to start gaining seats from the Conservatives”.
Mr Farron, who declared that the party had “screwed up” its handling of the complaints against Lord Rennard, added: “Without a single doubt at all the party is united behind Nick Clegg. There is no crisis in his leadership.”
UKIP leader Nigel Farage said his party appeared to have got more people to back it at polling stations than any rival but that a well-organised Liberal Democrat campaign to secure postal votes had swung the contest.
“The issues we have surged on in Eastleigh are not going away – they are going to get bigger and bigger. There will be more by-elections and we are getting better and more professional at fighting them,” he said.
“This is a massive boost ahead of the local council elections. People will say it was a protest vote but who we attracted here were non-voters who had not voted for 20 years – they are not protest votes.”
Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps tried to play down the significance of the shock result – which influential backbench MP David Davis had warned would mean a “crisis” for his party.
Mr Shapps insisted you “can’t read much into by-elections” – seeking to explain the poor showing in what had initially been billed as a two-way fight between the coalition partners as a classic mid-term voter revolt.
But the failure not only to overcome a Lib Dem party engulfed in the Huhne scandal and claims of sexual harassment by a senior party figure but also to outperform UKIP will reignite smouldering backbench dissent.
The Hampshire seat is one of a list of 20 Lib Dem-held constituencies Mr Shapps has said are crucial for the party to win in 2015 if the Prime Minister is to secure an outright majority.