Scotland’s grade forthe 2016 RBS 6 Nations is a C plus; five out of ten.
Only that? Yes there’s been unquestionable progress – they could hardly fail to do that given they failed to win a game in the 2015 championship – but I’m not getting carried away on this latest wave of optimism about the Scotland team that sometimes overwhelms reason.
We’ve been down that road too many times before. Thankfully, I detect very little self-satisfaction among the coaching team or players about the campaign just finished.
They get five out of ten for a 40 per cent record, two wins. I’m actually being generous and adding an extra point.
The fact that one win was against France, the first in 10 years, does not necessarily impress me in itself, although the performance gaining it did.
It was ridiculous the streak had been allowed to get that long and if Scotland hadn’t been favoured to beat France in Les Bleus’ current state there was something seriously wrong. I don’t see any potential improvement in France in the next 12 months and Scotland should certainly be looking to win in Paris next year.
No, the generous extra point comes from Scotland’s scoring record, their best ever in 6 Nations play. Going right back to the start of the World Cup the Scots have now averaged over 29 points a game and been held to less than 25 just twice.
That scoring average – take out the England game and it’s well above 30 a game – will keep Scotland in games. Tidy up the defence a bit, a much easier thing to do technically, it’s certainly enough to win more than you lose.
Greig Laidlaw’s metronomic kicking has helped, but this team are scoring tries, something they’ve not done since 1999.
Right through the noughties and up until fairly recently one despaired of Scotland in attack. It seemed that faced with a set defence inside the opposition 22 the only way they’d score was if they recycled long enough to force a submission penalty.
That’s clearly changed. For illustration all you need to do is to compare the try-scoring records of the main strike weapons in the period from 2010-13, Chris Paterson (22 tries from 109 caps) and Sean Lamont (12 from 104) with the present – Stuart Hogg (11 from 43), Tommy Seymour (13 from 27) and Tim Visser (11 from 26).
Hogg’s emergence in the last three games of this championship and Scotland’s clear surge in confidence are not a coincidence. The games against Italy, France and Ireland amounted to a personal highlight reel for the 23-year-old.
It would be wrong to say Hogg came of age this year; he’s been ahead of the age rank his entire rugby career. But the way he was marked out by England and then limped out against Wales before taking off for the final games show how crucial he’s become to Scotland.
It’s clearly similar with Jonny Gray, himself just 22. I’d pause before putting him in the Alun Wyn Jones bracket just yet, and he’s not the sort of player who can win a game on his own either.
However take out Jonny’s 10 to 14 tackles – none missed – and his 10 to 12 carries, take out his nuisance value in the defensive maul and even the grunt in the scrum, as happened in Dublin on Saturday, and Scotland are visibly diminished.
Scotland have arrived at a pretty settled starting XV. The problem in the first two games, particularly against Wales, was that the bench hasn’t matched up.
That shouldn’t be a long-term issue. Mark Bennett will come back to form in a centre mix of four to five quality players, and Grant Gilchrist will return to fitness to strengthen the lock choice. There’s a good choice of back rowers and Henry Pyrgos is a strong back-up to Laidlaw.
Peter Horne seems wasted as a utility back up but he fits the role so well. However the Scots need to develop front row players to back up the dominant starters Dickinson, Ford and Nel.
The time to do it is now, specifically the two-test tour to Japan. The front row trio can be wrapped in cotton wool for the summer after their various travails, and I’d be inclined to do the same with the otherwise indefatigable John Hardie. who has barely had a break for 18 months.
It’s also an ideal time to rest Laidlaw and give Pyrgos the captaincy role, while bringing on Sam Hidalgo-Clyne as a third option.
Develop back-up, have a half-decent autumn, and the 2017 6 Nations we have Ireland, Wales and Italy at home, a potentially struggling France in Paris, and England in London.
Four wins out of that lot? There’s potential to push on, why on earth not?
Teams of the championship
There’s been a large element of unanimity in everyone’s team of the 6 Nations, and I’m not really breaking ranks. The fact that everyone’s agreed there’s just one Frenchman is startling and evidence of how deep a hole they’re in.
Unlucky from my selection? Duncan Taylor, WP Nel, Jonny Gray, Alun Wyn Jones, Chris Robshaw and Taulupe Faletau.
My Lions team for next year is slightly different, including two quality players who missed this championship with injury; Rhys Webb and Sean O’Brien. I’d also like to see them shift Maro Itoje to blindside flanker rather than lock to accommodate Alun Wyn Jones, who I think would be the perfect captain. That also gives enough overall beef to at least interest New Zealand while perhaps allowing for Justin Tipuric as an open side option.
Scots on tour? Hogg, Dickinson, Nel, Jonny Gray and Hardie should all make it. There’s a case for Taylor, Seymour, Richie Gray and John Barclay as well. Outside shot for Laidlaw (there’s a lot of very good scrum-halves and kickers) and if he turns into the player we hope he will, Finn Russell.
Steve’s Team of the 6N: Hogg (Scotland); Watson (England), Joseph (England), Roberts (Wales), North (Wales); Sexton (Ireland), Laidlaw (Scotland); Dickinson (Scotland), Guirado (France), Cole (England); Kruis (England), Itoje (England); Spander (Ireland), Hardie (Scotland), Vunipola (England).
Steve’s potential 2017 Lions Team: Hogg; Watson, Davies (Wales), Roberts, North; Sexton, Webb (Wales); Dickinson, Hartley, Cole; Kruis, AW Jones (Wales, capt); Itoje, O’Brien (Ireland); Vunipola.