Scotland can’t win in Paris for the first time this century without taking some sort of risk somewhere, and they may be doing it before they take the pitch in the Stade de France tomorrow night.
Head coach Vern Cotter has kept his changes to a minimum for the opening game against France, making one enforced in recalling Tim Visser for Sean Maitland and restoring two of his first-choice autumn players, Mark Bennett and Euan Murray.
Yet it’s two established players’ inclusion that is most notable in Cotter’s first Six Nations selection. Both Stuart Hogg and Rob Harley are both in the team having barely played at all during the month of January.
Hogg suffered a hamstring injury in the New Year’s match against Edinburgh and although thought to have been fit for Glasgow’s final European Champions Cup game in Bath two weeks ago, he wasn’t risked until now.
Harley, meanwhile, hasn’t played since being helped from the field with knee and ankle injuries in the first 1872 Cup match against Edinburgh on December 27.
Both players underwent “rigorous” fitness tests last Friday and came through without any adverse reaction.
That notwithstanding, it’s indicative of the importance of both players to the Scottish scheme and how much Cotter rates them that they’re pitched straight into action at this level after several weeks on the sidelines.
“The tests were last Friday and if there had been any worries they’d have surfaced by that weekend,” said Cotter. “They turned up on Monday in good order and it’s been fine since then.”
Hogg’s worth is well known, his ability to beat defenders and pace on the counterattack. But Harley’s worth to the team and Cotter’s opinion of him is underlined in bold.
The blindside was always ignored by Andy Robinson and after a trio of starts in the 2013 6 Nations season Scotland won two of those games Scott Robinson didn’t pick him again.
Since Cotter has arrived, however, Harley has become a fixture.
“The medical staff have done a great job to bring him back,” said the head coach. “We looked at him carefully but he came through with flying colours. I’m sure he has a good 60-odd minutes in him on Saturday.
“He’s a very talented individual, he looks after himself, he’s very focused on what he does. He recovers quickly and he followed his rehab protocols meticulously. He always keeps a good level of fitness.
“His importance to us is that he offers that glue in defence that I think is very important. He is an aggressive, abrasive player, and against the French it is important to have that sort of presence on the pitch.”
Hogg, on the other hand, is more of an open field contributor whose worth to the team is obvious.
“We know what he offers,” continued the head coach. “If we can pressure their clearances and he gets the ball in a bit of space then he is a line-breaker. From those we can create opportunities.
“He, Tommy Seymour and TimVisser are exciting players. Mark Bennett comes back into the midfield and he is excited about playing against Wesley Fofana, who he trained when they were both at Clermont. There are some great match-ups there.
“We will have to be careful about which part of the pitch we play in. We know they have a good kicking game. We have to weather the pressure they apply in the first 20 minutes, hopefully get down their end of the park and get points.”
The absolute key to producing a result is to keep the French in range, he continued.
“It’s imperative that we stay close, we’ve got to keep the game tight,” he said. “We’ve got to padlock them if we can in their part of the field and don’t give them loose kicks or turnovers. We have to play a very tight game.
“The noises coming out from them is that they want to dominate our forwards. They feel they are bigger and stronger than we are so having people who are ready to stand up for themselves will be important.
“If we can weather the early storm, get our hands on the ball and score points when the opportunities arise – which may not necessarily be through tries – we’ll go about it that way. It is a great challenge for our players.”
Scotland’s injury list contains 14 names, but arguably only four of those would have would have threatened selection, and two of them, Adam Ashe and David Denton, play in the same position. Maitland would probably have been preferred to Visser and there was a healthy debate going on between Mark Bennett and Matt Scott, which many thought the Glasgow Warriors would have won anyway.
That debate was rendered moot by a recurrence of the shoulder injury that cost Scott the summer tour and the opening part of the current season in training, although it’s not to thought to be serious long-term.
Sean Lamont (calf) and Henry Pyrgos (knee) were also not considered, which leaves the way open for Dougie Fife actually in great form for Edinburgh and worthy of a shout and for the uncapped Sam Hidalgo-Clyne. The rise of the 21-year-old Edinburgh scrum-half has been pretty meteoric and he also appeals as a straight like-for-like swap, including goalkicking ability, for skipper Greig Laidlaw.
Also on the bench, Peter Horne, able to play three different positions in the backline if required, is preferred to Greig Tonks even if he missed out on selection in the autumn. None of the former Howe of Fife player’s five caps so far have come on home soil or in the Six Nations.
Cotter is returning to France where he made his name, but is keen not to take any limelight.
“It’s not about me, I don’t even think like that,” he said. “I’m excited by the challenge for a number of reasons, mostly that it gives us an opportunity to step up and have a good look at ourselves once again.
“I think we are further ahead from where we were in the first week of November. The players want to do well in this competition.
“It has been a few years since we won over here. Scotland will win a Six Nations game in France. Will it be on Saturday? We don’t know, but we’ll give it our best shot anyway.”
Scotland team: Stuart Hogg; Tommy Seymour, Mark Bennett, Alex Dunbar (all Glasgow Warriors), Tim Visser (Edinburgh); Finn Russell (Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Gloucester); Alsadair Dickinson, Ross Ford (both Edinburgh), Euan Murray (Glasgow Warriors); Jonny Gray (Glasgow Warriors), Richie Gray (Castres Olympique); Robert Harley (Glasgow Warriors), Blair Cowan (London Irish), Johnnie Beattie (Castres Olympique).
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Gordon Reid (both Glasgow Warriors), Geoff Cross (London Irish), Jim Hamilton (Saracens), Alasdair Strokosch (USA Perpignan), Sam Hidalgo-Clyne (Edinburgh), Peter Horne (Glasgow Warriors), Dougie Fife (Edinburgh).