Scotland’s era of perpetual transition, lasting the best part of a decade now, will most likely continue in a RBS 6 Nations whitewash and a wooden spoon against Ireland at BT Murrayfield today.
Unless the potential many of us can see in this Scotland side has hit tipping point and given the number of key personnel missing in Dr James Robson’s rehab unit, this would appear unlikely it’ll be the third whitewash in ten seasons. Only in the dark days of the 1950s when Scotland couldn’t buy a win against anyone has it been this bad.
Jam Tomorrow has been the promise for Scotland fans for too long now. We’re being promised it again right now, with a group of young players that just need time to bed in, to gain experience and to blossom. We have the talent, many believe, it’s just a question of waiting.
Patience has long been exhausted, however. Optimism at the start of every season is cruelly dashed, and another head coach is now being questioned.
To be fair to Vern Cotter, he never promised Scotland fans a rose garden in this 6 Nations. It’s only in the past week that he’s felt able to admit that this championship was about development, something he couldn’t possibly have said at the outset as some of the wildly optimistic thought Scotland might win three games.
We’re already talking about this team not aiming at this autumn’s World Cup at all but the next one in Japan in 2019. When Cotter talks about long-term, he surely can’t mean just six months away.
“We’re looking further than this 6 Nations,” he said. “And if there is something positive to take out of this, it’s that you find out more about people around you when things get tough. And things have been tough.
“We lost momentum after the Wales game, partly through injuries and suspension. But I feel there are strong signs of identity and solidarity within the group.”
How long until we’re good, though, Vern?
“We’ve got a young playmaker in Finn Russell and I think he’s doing really well. He’s improving. He’s learning the game,” he continued.
“Stuart Hogg’s learning his role as a decider-playmaker as well at 15 because often he comes into the front line. Mark Bennett’s coming along really well. Tommy Seymour is confirming his position. Dougie Fife is getting an opportunity.
“There are players up front that will come back into reckoning. Grant Gilchrist comes back into the running. Richie Gray will come back. Josh Strauss comes in. We’ve got Ryan Wilson who should be available. There’s a number of players who will strengthen the squad and provide more competition.
“We get more options perhaps in the front row in the propping positions. We’ve got some young hookers coming through. There’s experience to mix in, we get Duncan Weir back and Chris Cusiter is still there.”
It’s all built on faith, and one’s reminded of 2007, when Frank Hadden moulded a young team, good enough to reach the World Cup quarter-finals and a game they probably should have won against Argentina. We thought that team, with just a couple of players the wrong side of 30, were going to be something, but they turned out to be largely potential unfulfilled.
Unlike Cotter, Ireland head coach Joe Schmidt inherited a ready-made, battle-hardened unit mixing veteran presence with developing talent.
Cotter and Schmidt go back a long way, in fact the Irish coach twice got a big break from his fellow Kiwi, first as his assistant at Bay of Plenty in the New Zealand provincial game and then when he went to Clermont Auvergne.
However since they parted company in 2009 when Schmidt left for Leinster, however, the pupil has comfortably outdone his mentor, with two Heineken Cup titles and a seamless transition into the international coaching arena with Ireland over the last two years.
The defeat to Wales the Irish are still grumbling over how Wayne Barnes refereed the tackle area ended a run of ten successive wins for Ireland which included victories over South Africa and Australia, results that earmarked the Irish as true World Cup contenders. Their last meeting with New Zealand, of course, was the epic in Dublin 15 months ago when the All Blacks only got the win with a converted try deep into added time.
“We know that Ireland master just about every facet of the game, so we’re going to have to be better in the air, on the ground at lineout time and at scrum time,” said Cotter. “They can kick. They can run. They’re good at set phase. They’ve got lineout drives. They’re a very skilful team, powerful team. They go to the air if they need to find space.
“They’ve had a long time together than us, they’ve played a long time together and had success. This is probably Paul O’Connell’s last Six Nations, with the World Cup following. He’s highly motivated to drive his team forward.”
Scotland did beat Ireland two years ago, but even from that distance and the fond remembrance of the only 6 Nations Murrayfield win other than Italy since 2008, it looks like a quark.
It was the rearguard action to beat all-comers, possibly in 6 Nations history. Ireland enjoyed 77 per cent territory and 72 per cent possession. Sean O’Brien had 22 carries that afternoon, the entire Scotland pack (and replacements) only had 17 between them.
How did Ireland lose that game? They lost four lineouts and had several more disrupted, and they missed three kicks at goal. O’Connell and Jonny Sexton were not playing that day, and they are today, so good luck seeing that repeated.
The Scots will argue that they’re a better balanced team this time, and there is some value in Cotter’s insistence that the belief of the team is higher than then. But one questions how resilient the belief is against the constant reverses.
Belief was surely shaken by the debacle of losing to what seems to be a pretty poor Italian team, leaving Scotland with little chance of getting anything from this 6 Nations.
Unless we unexpectedly happen upon a new era today the way Ireland did in 2000, some bolstering of that fragile belief is the best we can hope for this afternoon.