Given that in their last game Scotland were one disputed “fumble” and a referee’s eyeline away from the Rugby World Cup semi-finals, you would think Vern Cotter wouldn’t be looking upon the 1872 Cup matches over the festive season with too much concern.
The annual doubleheader sees Edinburgh defend the trophy they won for the first time since 2009 last year and have home advantage in the first meeting on Sunday at BT Murrayfield.
Six days later the capital club will attempt to end 12 years without a win in Glasgow.
Time was when this would be something of a final eliminator for Scotland places ahead of the Six Nations just a month away.
But after the World Cup the national coach has a pretty settled side now, and some of the most meaningful contests for Scotland places over the next week are within the same team.
Add in that Edinburgh head coach Alan Solomons is dealing with yet another injury crisis which is depriving him of four second rows, and that Gregor Townsend is trying to massage his squad through a brutal series of seven games in seven weeks, five of them European Champions Cup ties.
Townsend won’t put out a first XV in either game, Solomons can’t. Both teams will lean heavily on non-Scottish qualified players as well.
Cotter will get some hints, but won’t be making any definitive decisions based on these two games, unless someone gets hurt.
With Scotstoun sold out next week and a record crowd expected at BT Murrayfield at the weekend, there’s still plenty to interest all-comers.
BACK THREE: Tim Visser loved scoring in the derbies two tries in Edinburgh’s 20-8 win at Murrayfield last year and his departure has left Edinburgh short on attacking threat. Greig Tonks will man full-back for them, but has done little to suggest he was hard done by in missing the World Cup. Tom Brown and Damien Hoyland have been occasionally lively.
The class is clearly Glasgow’s. Stuart Hogg is unapproachable if fit for the Scotland 15 jersey, Tommy Seymour is getting the appreciation he has long deserved.
Edinburgh need a big unit to counter the power of Taqele Naiyaravoro, and they don’t really have one. The Warriors have the vastly experienced Sean Lamont and the busy Lee Jones in reserve. Advantage: GLASGOW.
MIDFIELD: It wasn’t noticed because he got injured in the captain’s run, but Matt Scott wouldn’t have played against Australia at Twickenham anyway; Peter Horne, who went on to score a try, was Cotter’s choice.
Horne, Mark Bennett and Alex Dunbar offer another unit Edinburgh simply can’t match in an attacking sense.
Cotter’s main interest in the two matches may be how Dunbar goes as he continues the comeback from the injury that made him miss the RWC.
Scott limped off for Edinburgh last week, and while Solomons can still put up a reasonable defensive pairing, there’s little in the way of cutting edge. Advantage: GLASGOW.
HALF-BACK: The one man to maybe influence Cotter’s thinking matters here isn’t even in Scotland; Ruaridh Jackson has been going so well for Wasps that the coach and new backs assistant Jason O’Halloran must have noticed, while Finn Russell and Duncan Weir have been treading water somewhat. They both could do with a big week to reassert their claims.
Glasgow have done well with Mike Blair and Grayson Hart at 9, but have definitely missed Henry Pyrgos and Niko Matawalu.
For Edinburgh, Sam Hidalgo-Clyne has had a bit of second season syndrome, but has upped quality in the last couple of outings, while Phil Burleigh has been pretty decent at 10. Advantage: EVEN.
FRONT ROW: The one area where Edinburgh dominate, not just Glasgow, but just about everyone right now. The Scottish front three of Dickinson, Ford and Nel were the foundation for last year’s 1872 win and will be Townsend’s chief concern, as Glasgow’s rotating front row has not been that impressive.
The Warriors’ only slight advantage here might be Fraser Brown’s motor about the pitch in comparison to Ross Ford, but the veteran hooker, zeroing in on 100 caps, is a better scrummager and one of the best defenders in the game. Advantage: EDINBURGH.
2ND ROW: If Solomons could call on Grant Gilchrist or Ben Toolis, Edinburgh would shade this area but instead he may have to patch up even further with Anton Bresler hurt last week. Glasgow may miss Jonny Gray for at least the first game but Leone Nakarawa is pure class and Tim Swinson, the impressive American Greg Peterson or young Scott Cummings plug the gap manfully.
With Gilchrist hurt long-term again and Jim Hamilton retired there’s a third lock spot up for grabs in the Scotland squad; Alex Toolis could be a surprise runner. Advantage: GLASGOW.
BACK ROW: David Denton may be gone, but John Hardie’s signing and Nasi Manu settling in with Cornell du Preez returning to top form makes this one of Edinburgh’s strongest areas. Mike Coman does a yeoman job as well here, and there’s Hamish Watson and Roddy Grant in reserve.
Glasgow are far from dominated though; Adam Ashe is continuing his development, while Rob Harley, Ryan Wilson and Josh Strauss usually show their best form in the 1872 games. Simone Favaro has settled in over the last month, but Edinburgh have the edge here. Advantage: EDINBURGH.
Edinburgh’s win last year was founded on defence over two games that shut down the freescoring Warriors to just two tries.
They also needed Visser’s two strikes at Murrayfield, though, and they don’t seem to have any way of scoring tries except off driving mauls right now.
Glasgow’s continuing poor discipline sometimes it seems as if penalties and yellow cards are an acceptable trade-off for the way Townsend wants them to play could give Edinburgh a platform to go with their scrummaging advantage.
But I think Glasgow have parity in the pack other than front row and such a huge advantage when the ball goes wide that they’ll do enough to regain the cup, with a decent chance of winning both legs.